Desempenho da pauta de exportações agroindustriais de Minas Gerais no período de 1990 a 2003
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Data
2005-04-28
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Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Resumo
O objetivo central deste trabalho é analisar o desempenho da pauta de exportações mineiras de produtos agropecuários. Para tanto, foi escolhida uma metodologia que permitisse, simultaneamente, avaliar o referido desempenho e separar seus efeitos determinantes (efeitos comércio mundial, composição da pauta, destino das exportações e competitividade). Assim sendo, foi realizada a construção de dois indicadores ex post: o primeiro deles é obtido a partir do método Constant Market Share – CMS, que permite decompor o crescimento (decrescimento) das exportações em diferentes efeitos; o segundo indicador escolhido foi o de Vantagem Comparativa Revelada – VCR. Ambos os indicadores são tradicionalmente utilizados em pesquisas que buscam averiguar o desempenho exportador de um país e, ou, região, seja para o agregado de suas exportações, seja através de segmentação de sua pauta. Os produtos selecionados para esse estudo foram: café, soja em grão, celulose, açúcar em bruto, carne de frango e carne suína. A escolha deveu-se ao fato de esses constituírem os principais produtos agroindustriais da pauta exportadora de Minas Gerais. Os mercados de destino selecionados foram os Estados Unidos, União Européia, Mercosul, Japão, China, Oriente Médio, Ásia, Europa Oriental e África. Como resultado, percebeu-se que, de modo geral, as exportações mineiras cresceram para todos os produtos analisados no período considerado – 1990 a 2003. Todavia, em uma análise desagregada, observaram-se especificidades importantes. No caso das exportações mineiras de café, houve queda no período mais recente, explicada pelo desaquecimento do comércio mundial do produto. As vendas externas de soja, por sua vez, apresentaram sinal negativo para o efeito competitividade em todos os períodos, embora esse efeito não tenha sido determinante do desempenho das suas exportações. O efeito competitividade garantiu taxa positiva de crescimento das exportações mineiras de celulose no segundo período analisado, quando o mercado mundial para a mercadoria encontrava-se em retração. Por seu turno, os resultados obtidos para as vendas externas de açúcar por Minas Gerais indicaram um dinamismo interessante em períodos de desaquecimento mundial, justificado pelo efeito destino das exportações. Em relação às carnes de frango e suína, cabe destacar o crescimento expressivo das exportações mineiras no período recente, explicado pelo efeito competitividade. Na análise agregada pôde-se observar a importância da influência do efeito comércio mundial nas exportações mineiras para o período analisado. Em relação aos índices de Vantagem Comparativa Revelada, estes mostram um quadro evolutivo crescente para todos os produtos considerados, destacando-se o café, a soja e a celulose, que apresentaram valores maiores que um para todos os períodos, e a carne suína, a única a não apresentar VCR no último período analisado.
The main objective of this work is to analyze the performance of the exportation list of farming products of the State of Minas Gerais. For this, it was choosen a methodology that allowed to evaluate simultaneously the above metioned performance and separate its determinative effects (world-wide commerce effect, composition of the list, destination of the exportations, competitiveness). In this way, it was performed the creation of two ex post pointers: the first one of them is obtained from the Constant Market Share method - CMS, that allows to decompose the growth (decreasing) of the exportations in different effects; the second chosen pointer was the Revealed Comparative Advantage - RCA. Both pointers are used in researches in order to investigate the exporting performance of a country and/or a region, either for the aggregate of its exportations, either through the segmentation of its list. The products selected for this study were: coffee, soy bean, cellulose, raw sugar, pork and chicken meat. The choice was made because these products constitute the main agri industrial products of the exporting list of Minas Gerais. The selected consumer markets of destination were the United States, the European Union, Mercosul, Japan, China, the Middle East, Asia, Oriental Europe and Africa. As a result, it was realized that, in a general way, the exportations of the State of Minas Gerais had grown for all the analyzed products in the considered period - from 1990 to 2003. However, in a disaggregated analysis, important especifications were observed. In the case of Minas Gerais exportations of coffee there was a decrease in the most recent period, explained by the reduction of the world-wide trade of this product. External commerce of soy, for its turn, presented a negative signal for all the presented periods, though this effect was not determinative in the performance of its exportations. The competitiveness effect guaranteed a positive rate of growth of Minas Gerais exportations of cellulose in the second period analyzed, when the world-wide market for the product was in retraction. For its turn, the obtained results for external commerce of sugar of Minas Gerais had indicated an interesting dynamism in periods of world-wide economic decreasing, explained by the destination effect of the exportations. In relation to pork and chicken meats, it is good to mention the expressive growth of Minas Gerais exportations in this recent period, because of the competitiveness effect. In the aggregate analysis, it could be observed the importance of the influence of the world-wide commerce in the State of Minas Gerais exportations for the analyzed period. In relation to the rates of Revealed Comparative Advantage, they show a developing picture for all the considered products, distinguishing coffee, soy and cellulose, wich present values bigger than one for all the periods, and pork meat, the only one not to present RCA in the last period analyzed.
The main objective of this work is to analyze the performance of the exportation list of farming products of the State of Minas Gerais. For this, it was choosen a methodology that allowed to evaluate simultaneously the above metioned performance and separate its determinative effects (world-wide commerce effect, composition of the list, destination of the exportations, competitiveness). In this way, it was performed the creation of two ex post pointers: the first one of them is obtained from the Constant Market Share method - CMS, that allows to decompose the growth (decreasing) of the exportations in different effects; the second chosen pointer was the Revealed Comparative Advantage - RCA. Both pointers are used in researches in order to investigate the exporting performance of a country and/or a region, either for the aggregate of its exportations, either through the segmentation of its list. The products selected for this study were: coffee, soy bean, cellulose, raw sugar, pork and chicken meat. The choice was made because these products constitute the main agri industrial products of the exporting list of Minas Gerais. The selected consumer markets of destination were the United States, the European Union, Mercosul, Japan, China, the Middle East, Asia, Oriental Europe and Africa. As a result, it was realized that, in a general way, the exportations of the State of Minas Gerais had grown for all the analyzed products in the considered period - from 1990 to 2003. However, in a disaggregated analysis, important especifications were observed. In the case of Minas Gerais exportations of coffee there was a decrease in the most recent period, explained by the reduction of the world-wide trade of this product. External commerce of soy, for its turn, presented a negative signal for all the presented periods, though this effect was not determinative in the performance of its exportations. The competitiveness effect guaranteed a positive rate of growth of Minas Gerais exportations of cellulose in the second period analyzed, when the world-wide market for the product was in retraction. For its turn, the obtained results for external commerce of sugar of Minas Gerais had indicated an interesting dynamism in periods of world-wide economic decreasing, explained by the destination effect of the exportations. In relation to pork and chicken meats, it is good to mention the expressive growth of Minas Gerais exportations in this recent period, because of the competitiveness effect. In the aggregate analysis, it could be observed the importance of the influence of the world-wide commerce in the State of Minas Gerais exportations for the analyzed period. In relation to the rates of Revealed Comparative Advantage, they show a developing picture for all the considered products, distinguishing coffee, soy and cellulose, wich present values bigger than one for all the periods, and pork meat, the only one not to present RCA in the last period analyzed.
Descrição
Dissertação de mestrado defendida na Universidade Federal de Viçosa.
Palavras-chave
Produtos agrícolas – Exportação – Minas Gerais, Produtos agrícolas – Minas Gerais – Comercialização, Concorrência – Métodos estatísticos, Vantagem comparativa (comércio)
Citação
SILVA, Tania Araújo. Desempenho da pauta de exportações agroindustriais de Minas Gerais no período de 1990 a 2003. 2005. 86 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia Aplicada) - Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa-MG. 2005.