Monte Carlo simulation and importance sampling applied to sensory analysis validation of specialty coffees

Abstract

Coffee sensory analysis is usually made by a sensory panel, which is formed by trained tasters, following the recommendations of the Specialty Coffee Association of America. However, the preference for a coffee is commonly determined by experimentation with consumers, who typically have no special skills in terms of sensory characteristics. Therefore, this study aimed at applying an intensive computational method to study sensory notes given by an untrained sensory panel, considering the probability distributions of the class of extreme values. Four types of specialty coffees produced under different processes and in varied altitudes in the mountainous region of Mantiqueira, Minas Gerais, were considered. We concluded that the generalized Pareto distribution can be applied to sensory analysis to discriminate types of specialty coffees. Furthermore, the method of importance sampling by Monte Carlo simulation showed greater variability considering a probabilistic model adjusted to identify specialty coffees.