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URI permanente desta comunidadehttps://thoth.dti.ufv.br/handle/123456789/3352
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Resultados da Pesquisa
Item Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change(Grupo Paulista de Fitopatologia, 2011) Ghini, Raquel; Hamada, Emília; Pedro Júnior, Mário José; Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do ValleRisk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate futures cenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of lat itude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.Item Geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in climate change scenarios(Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - Embrapa, 2019) Alfonsi, Waldenilza Monteiro Vital; Coltri, Priscila Pereira; Zullo Júnior, Jurandir; Patrício, Flávia Rodrigues Alves; Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do Valle; Shinji, Kaio; Alfonsi, Eduardo Lauriano; Koga-Vicente, AndreaThe objective of this work was to simulate the geographical distribution of the incubation period of coffee leaf rust in Coffea arabica, using data of two regional climate models, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta- MIROC5. The scenario of high greenhouse gas emission (RCP 8.5 W m-2) was used for the states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, Brazil, for current and future climate scenarios. The behavior of six different regression equations for incubation period (IP), available in the literature, was also analyzed as affected by data from the regional climate models. The results indicate the possibility of an increase in the affected area in the studied region, When the IP is less than 19 days, from 0.5% for Eta-MIROC5 to 14.2% for Eta- HadGEM2-ES. The severity of coffee leaf rust in future scenarios should increase in the hottest and wettest months of the year, extending to the driest and coldest months. The potential of rust infection is estimated differently by the studied equations. In higher temperature scenarios, the Kushalappa & Martins equation indicates a very high severity potential.Item Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil(Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - Embrapa, 2008-02) Ghini, Raquel; Hamada, Emília; Júnior, Mário José Pedro; Marengo, José Antonio; Gonçalves, Renata Ribeiro do ValleThe objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020’s, 2050’s, and 2080’s (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961–1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.